• Adam Gibby

Reaction to BYU Football's 5.5 win projection

Just when it seemed like technology was getting smart, it messed up big time on BYU Football.


What the heck!? 5.5 wins? The William Hill US Sportsbook, which is one of the biggest sports betting apps in the U.S. recently released that BYU Football's line is 5.5 wins. I get it, BYU isn't going to go undefeated, heck they probably won't win ten games but how do you get to 5.5?


As I thought about this I decided to break down the ABSOLUTE worst realistic scenarios. Obviously things can fall apart with injuries and whatnot, but realistically this is how I break it down. Again, this is a sportsbook that is essentially saying that it is a 50% that BYU wins five or less games and 50% they win six or more.


AUTOMATIC WINS


Yes, I know in a worst case scenario there is no such thing as an automatic win, but again within reason UMass, Idaho State and Liberty should all be games that BYU wins.


SHOULD WIN GAMES


Toledo. That is the only game that even if BYU is not very good they should still win without it being automatic.


TOSS UP GAMES


San Diego State, South Florida, Utah State and Boise State are games that honestly I have BYU going 3-1 in but again if the team falls flat then these games can go either way.


SHOULD LOSE GAMES


Again this is under a worst case scenario that BYU is not a very good team. The first four games of Utah, Tennessee, USC and Washington are all games that BYU could very well lose.


Bringing it all together


Technically speaking, yes BYU can go 2-3 against Toledo, SDSU, USF, USU and BSU and 0-4 against the Power 5 schools, but seriously? The sportsbook is saying there is a 50% that scenario plays out.


The Cougars are not going to drop the automatic win games. Those teams are all headed in the wrong direction or are FCS talent. Here are all the minimum scenarios, even bad ones, that get BYU Football to six wins.

  • Win the three automatic, go 3-2 in "should win" and "toss up", go 0-4 in P5 games

  • Win the three automatic, go 2-3 in "should win" and "toss up", 1-3 a P5 games.

  • Lose one of the automatic, go 3-2 in "should win" and "toss up", 1-3 a P5 game.

  • Win the three automatic, go 1-4 in "should win" and "toss up", 2-2 in P5 games.

I mean is it really a 50% chance that BYU can't AT LEAST complete one of those? I have a feeling that William Hill may be disappointed after week nine.


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